Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Huybrechts and Klaasen to come through second round hurdles

By Dave South
28 DECEMBER 2016 • 9:32AM

The business end of the second round continues as four more second matches are decided over two sessions, with the bookmakers having firm favourites for four.

For Wade, Klaasen, Wright and Huybrechts pays just over 13/10 with Marathonbet with all four outsiders winning at a handsome 549/1!

Kim Huybrechts toes the oche first and faces Germany’s Max Hopp. Huybrechts is 4/11 generally with Hopp out at 5/2.

Hopp showed up Vincent van der Voort in the opening round, as Huybrechts, chasing a return to the Premier League sailed past James Wilson with a top end 98 average and a terrific 64.29% checkout conversion.

Huybrechts has the advantage over Hopp in the last two meetings, with the last encounter whitewashing the German superstar. The odds are fair in the view of experience, form and expectation.

I did look at the Huybrechts handicap but at 4/6 – 8/13, which is a little short in my view. However the maximum market may appeal, with most firms at 10/11 for seven or more 180s from the Belgian.

I feel comfortable enough with Huybrechts winning this, and will double up with another game to create a nicer priced double.

Steve Beaton will look to “beat” the odds and upset Aldershot left hander James Wade, a multiple time major winner.

Beaton had a resurgence of form over 2016 and is a general 4/1 to get the job done. Wade is the overwhelming 2/9 favourite.

Wade has beaten the Bronze Adonis with four wins from the last five and is suited to this format having made the latter stages on numerous occasions.

A market which was identified as a value bet was Beaton to land four or more maximums, which Betway had chalked up at 11/10.

This has since eased into 4/6 with the industry best price now at 8/11. I expect this game to be quite the entertainment especially for the purest of darting fans!

In the last game of the afternoon sees Jelle Klaasen face off against Brendan Dolan in a game, where the super fast Dutch maestro will hopefully bring home our double bet. Before we announce this, some background into the game.

Klaasen has come through on the last three meetings where all have been on the stage and expect Klaasen to be too good for Dolan, who saw off Christian Kist 3-1 in the last round.

Klaasen like Huybrechts is looking for contention for the Premier League and will be looking hopeful in respect of a win here to see himself in the third round.

Klaasen on a race to four should outscore the Irishman and by at least two sets. I find it difficult to look past the compilers prices and the -1.5 set market is effective alone at 8/13 with Sportingbet.

Today’s recommendations

Huybrechts win and Klaasen -1.5 sets – 2.12 Marathonbet (2.09 bet365/William Hill)

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Suljovic/Webster and Chisnall/Dobey to go some distance this afternoon

By Dave South
27 DECEMBER 2016 • 8:32AM

The Christmas break is over and the darts resumes at the Alexandra Palace where six more second round matches will be decided over two sessions.

As per previous columns, for the short price ACCA backers all six favourites to win on Tuesday (Suljovic, Gurney, Barney, Taylor, MVG and Chisnall) pays 5/1 with William Hill for some not seeing any of the above losing.

For those that split out the afternoon and evening session will get 4.40 in places with the evening session getting JUST 4/11 for Barney, Taylor and MVG to reign supreme with tournament sponsors William Hill.

Mensur Suljovic will toe the oche with Mark Webster in Tuesday’s opener, with the Austrian 8/15 and Spider 7/4 with some firms.

Arguably Suljovic has endured an excellent 18 months or so on his push inside the top 10. The last two meetings Webster has prevailed including this year’s UK Open.

The pair have met in the World Championships three years ago, where Webby nudged out Suljovic on that occasion.

Compilers have the opinion this game could go some distance offering 4/6 on there being over 5.5 sets and it will be a necessity for Webby to show the sparks of his previous World Championship performances to assist in this happening.

Suljovic to have the higher average of the two players appeals at 4/7 with Totesport and Betfred.

I do like the look of Suljovic to hit four or more maximums, although not a big hitter I would not feel comfortable on backing fewer than four.

Robert Thornton and Daryl Gurney will toe the oche in a view that Gurney is the 4/6 favourite for this over Thornton.

Despite the world rankings, Gurney is still favourite and compilers see the view that as Thornton continues in decline, Gurney continues to rise.

As a punter who has enjoyed some success with Thornton betting markets in the past this will not be easy for either player in this instance and the best bet for this, is seeing both winning at least two sets, which is around the 8/13 mark with most firms.

Reasoning for this was the number of missed doubles Gurney demonstrates, which is his Achilles heel and Thornton has the power scoring to keep this close.

To round off the afternoon is Dave Chisnall and Chris Dobey, which I find an intriguing match.

The Racing Sport pundit Steve Davies was spot on in Chisnall’s last game, which saw Rodriguez keep the match close.

Dobey is an up and coming talent which has seen the youngster flourish in the autumn season.

Chisnall is by far the obvious most likely winner in this, and I see Dobey could force this game to go on longer than expected, with the over 5.5 set market priced at evens with Bet365, which in our view has mileage!

Looking briefly at the evening session, for ticket holders a delight to see Barney, MVG and Taylor all on the same card Tuesday night! Just 4/11 with sponsors William Hill to all progress, have the compilers got this right?

The longest price of the four Barney is just 1/4 to see off Norris, which is a little disrespectful for the underdog, but you can appreciate why. Compilers have markets in this game well covered on most lines, which do not really appeal to us taking on.

A battle of the titans with Taylor and Painter in the penultimate match will see Taylor continue his quest against a real out of sorts Painter, who made life tough for himself in an entertaining first round win over Jamie Caven

The only market as such player to hit first 180 does appeal leaning on Taylor at 8/11 as Phil generally strikes early in this area and the Artist did not appear to be the player he used to be.

MVG will need to see off Cristo Reyes in the final game of the evening, and odds compilers see this as an ultimate formality for the Green Machine to progress. Again, this game might not go to plan as compilers see this, so will be best left alone.

Today’s recommendations

Mensur Suljovic highest average vs Webster – 4/7 Betfred/Totesport

Suljovic v Webster over 5.5 sets – 8/13 general (13/20 Betstars)

Chisnall v Dobey over 5.5 sets – 1/1 Bet365

First 180 – Taylor vs Painter – 4/5 Betstars and 8/11 general

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Ian White to get the second round started with a win this afternoon

By Dave South
23 DECEMBER 2016 • 10:19AM

Round two opens up with the first six of sixteen games which will determine competitors in the third round.

Interestingly players competing on Friday will have extra time off before their third round clash if they win of course.

The afternoon session sees Ian White take on Jonny Clayton; Michael Smith battling against Mervyn King and Benito van de Pas taking on Terry Jenkins.

All three favourites to win are a smidgen under 3/1 with bookie Blacktype and under 5/2 with Bet365.

Ian White and Jonny Clayton see the afternoon session in with White at 8/15 and Clayton 15/8 in places.

Okay, White did not get tested too much versus Kevin Simm in his opener which led to a mid 80 average performance. Clayton battled nicely over Gerwyn Price to progress.

With the format a first to four, this will be a format Clayton is less used to, with the veteran White having the seeming advantage.

The standout bet here has to be White to win the game by two or more sets at 13/14 with Marathonbet and a general 5/6 with other bookmakers.

White is 4/9 for the most maximums, which I like also. He was not tested too much against Simm, but can switch on the maximums when he needs to, although less so recently.

The danger is that on his day Clayton can deliver on the red bit, so with compilers and sponsors William Hill betting 2/1 White winning the match, most 180s and highest checkout to be king of the oche is worth a look!

Clayton on TV has not hit above a 120 checkout in the last twelve months, and White nailed a 130 in round one! White is a general 8/11 for the highest checkout which also appeals!

Michael Smith and Mervyn King second up could be an absolute classic if both turn up and a game both desperately have reasons for needing the win!

Smith goes off at 8/15 with King a shade under 2/1. Smith leads the more recent head to head winning three of the last four, however King leads overall 6-3 in the standings.

Both rattled in their openers can hopefully open up and understand why Bully Boy is fancied for a third round potential tie with James Wade or Steve Beaton.

The pair have not played in nearly two years, but since then have seen a decline in King’s game play, although without sticking up for Smith, the Premier League syndrome has happened to him, like it did to Wes Newton and Kim Huybrechts in recent years in struggling to buy a win proceeding this!

Smith over 117.5 checkout appeals with Skybet and expected the line to fall at 120.50, so hopefully the omen is on us!

Benito and Terry will be an epic in the finale game of the afternoon session with the European thrower marginal favourite over the veteran Jenkins!

With five meetings previous runs in a win-lose pattern with van de Pas winning back at the World Grand Prix by three sets to one in a game that saw the double format not go Jenkins way!

This is really a game where I find this difficult to call with the youth versus the veteran. I do think heading down to the checkout markets could be the way to go, with Jenkins registering a 156 in his last meeting with Benito.

The line is set at 110.5 with Betbright at 3/4 and 11/13 at 111.5 and Jenkins has landed a high checkout in three of his last five wins!

This afternoon’s recommendations

Ian White -1.5 sets – 13/14 Marathonbet

Michael Smith over 117.5 checkout – 10/11 Skybet

Terry Jenkins over 1105 checkout – 3/4 Betbright

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Chisnall and Klaasen to overcome first round hurdles this evening

By Dave South
22 DECEMBER 2016 • 9:19AM

Thursday could be the night where all the favourites can win and is reflected in the just shy 12/5 odds with Coral for a Dave Chisnall, Kim Huybrechts, Vincent van der Voort and Jelle Klaasen victory.

Fancy going with the Dutch Double? The same firm Coral offer 10/11 on van der Voort and Klaasen to reign supreme.

Klaasen faces Jeffrey de Graaf in what could be a tricky opener, with Klaasen as short as 1/4 in most places.

Klaasen has not had the most success in 2016 reaching just one stage final at a European Tour event since the UK Open semi-finals back in March.

De Graaf transferred over to the PDC in 2016 and has not had the easiest of years on tour.

A small handful of last 16 appearances at Pro Tour events has been the highlight for the Dutchman.

The odds reflect in the year both have had although Klassen on the short side is the most likely winner.

I do like the Klassen checkout line set at 113.5 with Bwin at 11/13 with most other firms 5/6 on 114.5.

Klassen in the last TV events managed to see the checkout off and expect the Cobra to light up the big stage once again!

Van der Voort takes on Max Hopp in a juicy European encounter and expect this game to rally through smoothly as both are pacey players.

Vincent once had the fastest player on the circuit to his name only to be superseded by Ricky Evans.

The pair played in the 2014 World Championship, where van der Voort demolished Hopp 4-0 in the last 32.

Since then the pair met at a European Tour event, again with the Dutch master seeing Hopp off comfortably.

I get the feeling the game will not go as van der Voort may expect from the previous meetings, but will be an entertaining watch.

Chisnall takes on Rowby-John Rodriguez in a repeat of the first round clash two years ago.

Chisnall has been edging again towards his maiden TV major title with good consistent performances over the last year or so.

The pair have met three times, with Chisnall ruling on two occasions. Rodriguez was last seen losing 6-0 to Joe Cullen at the Players Championship Finals.

I could vision Chisnall dominating this from the off, with a possible repeat scoreline from the 2015 event of 3-0 at 11/8 with Skybet and with an outright 1/6 price seems reasonable in reflection!

In the final game of the evening James Wilson will look to stun Huybrechts in what could be a close encounter.

Huybrechts is 1/2 with Wilson 2/1. Huybrechts will be looking to avert his opening round exit last year.

Huybrechts has done reasonably well on the circuit in 2016 with quarter final appearances at the World Grand Prix and Players Championship Finals since October.

The pair have met three times with Huybrechts winning two and Wilson winning the last battle at the European Championship in October in the opening round.

This game could head some distance and 17 or more legs in the game can be taken at 10/11 with Paddy Power!

Today’s recommendations

Jelle Klaasen over 113.5 checkout -11/3 Bwin (5/6 general)

Dave Chisnall to win 3-0 – 11/8 Skybet

Over 16.5 legs (Huybrechts/Wilson) – 10/11 Paddy Power

Klaasen 3-0; van der Voort win – 4.71 Sportingbet

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Suljovic to get his World Championship campaign up and running tonight

By Dave South
21 DECEMBER 2016 • 8:03AM

As day seven of the William Hill World Darts Championship heads to us, four more games take place as we head into the Christmas break.

As ever, for short price backers the accumulator four fold on Stevenson, Suljovic, Wade and Thornton all to win is 23/20 with most firms.

Longshot punters will get over 650/1 for Lerchbacher to win twice, Meulenkamp and Ronny Huybrechts all to win!

In the opener Simon Stevenson pocketed his position in the championship as one of the PDPA qualifier, and for those not too aware of the 44-year-old chucker from Plymouth he has made a string of last 16 places in the Pro Tour events over 2016 as well as a couple of European Tour events.

This suggests confidence is growing. Stevenson faces Zoran Lerchbacher who makes his second appearance on the big stage, with limited success on the tour which includes a last 32 in one European Tour events in 2016.

Stevenson is 4/9 with Lerchbacher at just over 2/1 and I find it difficult to argue on the form line! Betfair is 6/4 on a 2-0 win, which is an implied 40% chance of happening.

I do think if Stevenson wins the first set the 4/9 is a great boost to 6/4 on seeing out the second set. .

Mensur Suljovic has had a good two years or so on the circuit and has climbed inside the top ten.

Ron Meulenkamp is the opponent and what a mark he made at the Players Championship Finals last month.

Early betting captured from fellow colleague Carl Redden saw Suljovic’s price trim from 2/1 on 3-0 to 7/4 in a matter of two minutes flat and trust me, I saw it happen!

The price remains with a small handful of firms at 7/4 now and as short at 11/8.

Suljovic should see this out, and -1.5 sets could be the professional bet here doubling up with another strong fancy.

Third up is James Wade versus Ronny Huybrechts and look for the Machine to see the game out early.

With Wade’s reputations for checkouts versus Ronny who can win legs, but not often on high checkouts it will only need a high checkout benchmark set by Wade to win this.

With the 1/2 on Suljovic not winning by less than two sets and the left hander winning the high checkout battle pays 5/4 with Betfred.

Robert Thornton plays in the last game versus the winner of the preliminary and trying to bet on this is a mystery and we will let this game pan out!

Today’s recommendations

Simon Stevenson to win 2-0 – 6/4 Betfair Sportsbook

Mensur Suljovic -1.5 sets and James Wade highest checkout vs Huybrechts – 5/4 Betfred (Nap)

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Simon Whitlock to triumph 3-0 in first round encounter this evening

By Dave South
20 DECEMBER 2016 • 9:03AM

As the first round draws to its conclusion, there are still last 32 spots up for grabs as we see another four matches on this Tuesday night.

For short price backers, the favourite three tonight, which is Barney, Whitlock and Horvat is 23/20 and with Kist added enhances to nearly 3/1.

Without knowing too much about the preliminary players, not seeing enough of them does not bode column inches in generic content, I do think with Horvat at 8/13 the compilers think this could go the distance, but you never know.

Christian Kist and Brendan Dolan square off, where both players were unable to be split by most bookies at even money either way.

Since Kist has eased into 10/11 with Dolan maintaining his double your money position. On the head to head Dolan leads 3-1, but having never played on the TV stage it will be a first for the head to head.

However the two European Tour events have been on the stage so-to-speak with a crowd audience, both of which the Irishman has reigned supremacy!

If I was forced to make a bet here, Kist is 8/11 to win the maximum count on the night looks very much like the likely winner here.

On next is Raymond van Barneveld and Robbie Green; two veteran players with a wealth of experience between them.

Barney heads the betting at 3/10 with Kong out at 100/30.

The head to head sees the players at 1-1 with Green winning the last encounter.

A tricky tie to call in general and I was interested in the first leg going without a maximum, however at 4/6 you may feel burned in the event either player lands three in the lipstick as the late Sid Waddell would say!

Simon Whitlock is 1/16 in places and by the sounds of this percentage price we anticipated his price for the 3-0 price to still be heavily odds on, but it is not. at 1/16 implies a 94%+ price on victory, but the compilers in this field head the following:

3-0 – 5/6 (54.64%)
3-1 – 23/10 (30.30%)
3-2 – 6/1 (14.28%)

With the over round topped up the 3-0 represents some value in our eyes.

Trying to weigh up 3-2 over 3-1 at 23/10 can Dutch over 1/3 on Whitlock winning by either score line.

However Whitlock before the World Championship was putting some great form together and suggests he can win his opening match without too much bother.

The odds compilers are practically a coin toss on a 3-0, but side with the side of Whitlock here!

Today’s recommendations

Kist most 180s against Dolan – 8/11 Paddy Power

Whitlock to win 3-0 – 5/6 Betfair Sportsbook (-NAP)

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Mervyn King to see off debutant Steve West tonight

By Dave South
19 DECEMBER 2016 • 1:58PM

The rising star of Corey Cadby will make his World Championship debut in the preliminary round with Qiang Sun who was entertaining in last year’s event.

Sun infamously missed the board and the camera missed it also; only to get improvised words from the competent Sky commentary.

Cadby is highly favoured to win the game and is no bigger than 2/5 to see Sun off and face Joe Cullen later in the evening.

We find it difficult to make a case for Sun and think the charismatic Cadby will try and make light work of the opener!

Mervyn King is a first round choice we made a weeks ago and as if King has not enjoyed the best of 2016’s Steve West could be a real threat based on his recent form this autumn.

West however has never performed well on the world stage and on the concept of King’s preparation that gives us confidence the seed can progress into the second round. At 5/6 generally he has held his price!

Adrian Lewis will take on Magnus Caris in the penultimate game and this is a game with an armchair viewing.

I expect punters to steam in on the 3-0 scoreline but Caris is more than capable of stringing a set together than a drunk person trying to get served.

I do think the game will start slow and the indication on the maximum line suggests few will be scored. I will watch this game with observation!

The winner of Cadby/Sun faces Cullen and in the event Cadby wins he will head in as a marginal underdog if the prices hold up!

Today’s recommendations

Cadby 2-0 and Lewis/Caris 1st leg 180 NO – 23/20 Betfair

Mervyn King to win – 5/6 general

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Chris Dobey to make a winning start to his World Championship debut

By Dave South
18 DECEMBER 2016 • 10:47AM 

With another eight matches on the card today, Phil Taylor is the biggest name competing and goes on last to face the winner of the third preliminary round match between David Platt and John Bowles.

Justin Pipe and Chris Dobey stand out for me. Fellow darts writer and good friend Carl Redden has known Dobey for sometime and he said to me we are now witnessing the emergence of a great player.

Dobey has matured into an excellent player and is rising fast up the PDC top ranks, while his opponent today Justin Pipe is sliding down the rankings towards the wrong end of the top 32.

Dobey’s excellent run to the Grand Slam of Darts quarter-finals demonstrated his temperament and nerve under pressure.

I was told Dobey is a top prospect and have begun to see this. Pipe has looked steady at best over the past couple of seasons and steady just won’t do in the PDC anymore and his position in the game’s top 32 is in jeopardy.

Dobey is a narrow favourite at 13/15 but the slow pace of Pipe is a factor, but I think the emerging talent versus a Pipe who looked to be beating himself up at events leading up to the World Championship breeds real confidence issues.

Mark Webster and Joe Murnan should be closer than the odds imply with Webby at 4/6 and Murnan at 11/8.

Webster has not has the best of years on the circuit and his known issues with dartitis is a concern where you see him throw.

I did say on my blog bulletin last year that Webster appeared to have the demons out of his system, which led to an excellent end to 2015.

With two quarter finals in 2016 at the UK Open and a European Tour event, Webby would sum up that there was room for improvement.

Murnan has not had the best of seasons either, but will look to recapture the magic of knocking out former finalist Andy Hamilton last year.

To pick a bet out I will be going with Murnan on the checkout markets, as I see this game going more than three sets.

Sponsors William Hill and bookmaker Winner both set the line at 100.50 at 5/6 and I see this taking place. Murnan managed a 112 checkout in beating Hamilton last year and is not known as a usual high finisher, but with many comfortable finishes available will have a fair chance of coming in.

In the evening session Darryl Gurney will take on rising star Jermaine Wattimena in a game where Gurney has a the advantage of 3-0 in the head to head.

Wattimena showed what he is capable of at the Players Championship Finals, but lost out to Brendan Dolan.

Gurney is priced on reputation, but certainly has experience on the bigger stage and I expect him to come through, but it will not be easy.

I also expect Alan Norris to return to the big stage, where he made a great impact last year, with a win.

Norris plays John Michael in a game, where I expect Norris to win with some comfort.

With some insurance Norris to win by more than one set appeals for a nice even money Sunday night wager with a Gurney win!

Today’s recommendations

Daryl Gurney to win and Alan Norris – 1.5 sets – 1/1 Coral

Chris Dobey to win – 20/23 Boylesport

Joe Murnan over 100.50 checkout – 5/6 Hills

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Terry Jenkins to light up the Ally Pally stage once again this afternoon

By Dave South
17 DECEMBER 2016 • 7:07AM 

In a jam packed day ahead, eight games will take place, as the weekend sees out we will get a better idea of round two matches as the opening round progresses nicely.

Commenting on all eight matches will be exhaustive enough, so picking out the games where I believe there are good betting calls is the key.

I will look first at Terry Jenkins to beat Josh Payne at 4/5 with most firms.

Jenkins still has his moments but at 53 years of age and has confirmed he will go into semi-retirement into 2017.

Payne at 23 is a young vibrant player, who has enjoyed a sound 2016 notably making the last 16 at the Players Championship Finals last month.

The players have met three times, all at the Pro Tour and all at Barnsley with Terry edging this 2-1 with an aggregate score line of 17-12 legs in his favour.

With such a small sample to go on, Terry has enjoyed good memories on this stage including a semi-final back in 2011.

I think experience will count most on this stage and although the compilers make Terry the narrow favourite I tend to agree but do not see it being a cake-walk!

Following this game will be 31st seed John Henderson rocking  over the Ally Pally stage with his unorthodox throwing action.

With the winner facing a second round clash against Gary Anderson, I see Henderson having too much for an out of sorts Andrew Gilding who has gone off the map with results and form over the past 18 months.

Elsewhere, bookies find it difficult to call the Cristo Reyes match against Dimitri van den Bergh and if I was to make a call here would side with Bergh on the narrowest of margins. I also see Bunting bagging the most 180s versus Darren Webster.

Today’s recommendation

Terry Jenkins to win – 4/5 BetVictor

John Henderson to win – 10/11 Hills

Prices correct at time of publication

Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Beaton and Petersen to go at least four sets this evening

By Dave South
16 DECEMBER 2016 • 5:05PM 

The beginning of the preliminary round kicks off tonight with Jerry Hendriks taking on Warren Parry, in what should be a close encounter.

The Dutchman Hendriks is 4/5, with Parry at 11/10. With the best of three sets format it will be a cagey affair.

But with little time to get started I think Hendriks could edge the Kiwi out here.

Parry is no stranger to this stage though and holding throw will be a big factor here.

Gerwyn Price was not convincing the last time we watched him in the Players Championship Finals a few weeks ago, and he takes on fellow Welshman Jonny Clayton in the first round.

Price at just 1/2  is short and for a good reason. Price’s progression over the last two years has led him to generating a good reputation, but I cannot back Price with any confidence in this one.

Steve Beaton is just 4/6 to beat Devon Petersen in what should be another close encounter on day two of the tournament.

Beaton enjoyed a great run at the World Matchplay this year and showed he can still put on a show.

With his silky smooth action versus Petersen who can often pull off a performance on the big stage, it could go some distance.

If I was to place a bet on this, over 16.5 legs is well covered at 8/11 with Betfred and would need at least four sets to be played.

One of which would need to go five legs and the other four to at least four legs.

The treble for the evening for a short price accumulator (Price, Beaton and Hendriks) pays 4.35 at Marathonbet for those interested.

Tonight’s recommendation

Beaton/Petersen over 16.5 legs – 8/11 Betfred

Prices correct at time of publication