World Matchplay betting column, day two afternoon session: Jelle Klaasen to get the better of Justin Pipe

Today we are treated to a double session which will see eight further round one matches that will help shape up the last 16 ties.

Jelle Klaasen vs. Justin Pipe

Klaasen toes the oche in the opener versus Justin Pipe, where both need the win for different reasons. Pipe is a nose ahead on the head to head although the pair have not met in over two years.

Jelle is 4/9 with Pipe at 9/4 and Jelle has a 2.5 leg handicap as the different maker at just under even money.

Klaasen in the last two months has really struggled on the tour finding it difficult to get past the last 16 in any competition and failing to cash out at either of the last Player Championship events at the start of July.

Pipe on the other hand on the last two European Tours exited in the first round and may be low on confidence.

Looking at the betting market this is tough to call from a value aspect however the -2.5 on Jelle would get the nod if you wanted an around even money bet.

Robert Thornton vs. Cristo Reyes

Thornton and Reyes take to the oche second up and the pair have met three time prior with The Thorn holding the advantage 2-1 in this respect.

This game is edged towards Reyes on a reputation basis as Thornton’s stage play has nosedived hence the odds compilers view on taking on Reyes for this. Reyes is 4/5 with the Scot 6/5.

Usually when games are priced like this checking the total legs in the game is always a great first base.

Layers take 4/5 on 17 or more legs and 10/11 on fewer. Sky Bet are 4/1 there are 20 or more legs thus a tie breaker which may appeal.

Having looked at this game prior to writing this is one I would rather leave this be.

Benito van de Pas vs. Daryl Gurney

Third on is another close knit game with Benito van de Pas taking on Darryl Gurney in a game where a few months back the pricing would have been a pick em.

Gurney’s recent form including a great run in the World Series has led to a surge of confidence in Gurney being earmarked a Premier League spot next February.

Benito has made one quarter final at a European Tour event since making the final of the German Open at the end of April.

The head-to-head goes against Big Ben having lost all of the last four. Although Gurney is a little skinny on the match price around 4/6 you can get the same price on Gurney winning the 180 by two or more is the bet I am willing to take from this one in the event the game goes some distance I am more confident on Gurney’s 180s.

Mensur Suljovic vs. John Henderson

Mensur Suljovic and John Henderson see off the afternoon session with the Austrian red hot 9/2 ON favourite against the Scot.

There is no previous meetings from my sources and this could be a game that doesn’t really appeal to any betting markets so will leave this be.

Recommendations

Klaasen -2.5 legs vs Pipe – 28/29 Marathonbet 1pt

Gurney -1.5 180s vs van de Pas – 4/6 Sky Bet 2pts

World Matchplay betting column, day one: Four favourites to progress, but how will they do it?

Favourite backers out there will be glad to know they will be able to secure industry-wide odds against for the four-timer, with Paddy Power laying 5/4 on Smith/Wade/Anderson and Wright all to win their matches.

If you were to back the four outsiders, in the unlikely event they all win, you will be able to pocket a cool 846/1 on this with Marathonbet if you choose this route.

Taking the middle approach and taking on all the favourites and underdogs on the handicaps respectively pays:

FAVS – Smith -2.5; Wade -2.5; Anderson -4.5 and Wright -4.5 pays 10/1 with Marathonbet

Underdogs – West +3,5; Webster +2.5; Kist +5.5 and Wilson +4.5 pays nearly 10/1 at Betfred

Michael Smith vs. Steve West

Down to business and Bully Boy opens up the Winter Gardens against the very experienced Steve West tonight.

Last autumn West rallied in a mini surge on the circuit, which got people talking about him, and he has continued some good form to the extent of making the cut via the leading 16 players in the Pro Tour Order of Merit, outside the players that qualified by right.

Smith is 3/10 vs West out at 100/30, and I am sure this will see some shrewd money on West, knowing Smith’s tendencies, although he has been one of the more form players most recently, especially on the European Tour.

This has earned him a call up to the World Series next month Down Under in Australia and New Zealand. The pair have met four times previously, both trading at two-apiece.

Compilers have Smith between a -2.5 and -3.5 handicap with Boylesports offering 8/11 on -2.5 and odds against -3.5. Remember either player will need to win by two legs!

Smith is the 4/5 favourite to land the highest checkout, with West 15/8 and 6/1 for the tie.

Layers offer just 4/7 the game sees 16 or more legs and 4/5 for fewer than 17 legs. With Smith in a better place and more stage exposure than West, the format for West will not be as familiar and I’ll give Bully Boy the edge. -2.5 legs for Smith is for me.

James Wade vs. Darren Webster

James Wade battles recent Pro Tour title-holder Darren Webster in what could be a closer game than the layers are anticipating.

Some firms are as big as 2/5 for Wade (71.4 per cent implied probability) to win the contest.

This is one of Wade’s fondest arena’s having lifted the title and being his most successful major from the list.

Webster on the other hand has nothing to lose, with Wade jet-setting on the World Series which must have had some influence for his preparation.

Webster’s record is not great against Wade. Darren has racked up three wins in 11 attempts with one victory in 10 years, although meetings have been sparse in this time.

On a potential betting market, at the time of initial writing I will be interested in what checkout line is priced for Wade generally, and will be interested whether they price it over 116 concentrated as a 5/6 pick-em price?

Luckily, just before this went to press bookmaker Marathonbet priced the Wade checkout line at 113.5 at 1.89.

Wade has maintained his position at the top via his checkout ability as the power scoring is not always there for The Machine, which is a fair comment to make.

So many Wade bets we have played in the past on the checkout have delivered more often that not and we will take this on one more time.

Gary Anderson vs. Christian Kist

Gary Anderson takes on Christian Kist where the Dutchman has been suffering with some darting issues, which has seen a dip in performances.

In fact Kist has struggled to the point that he has failed to get beyond a last 16 in any event in 2017 according to my sources.

The pair have met five times, with Anderson seeking the advantage in three of them.

Anderson is a hot favourite to win this, and where there is no value on the outright, the next bet is to see how the bookmakers have weighed in the handicap.

From analysing the markets, Anderson is favoured to win this 10-5 or better at 4/5 with bet365. The 4/5 market is also available on Sky Bet taking the game fewer than 16 legs and this will suffice for us.

Peter Wright vs. James Wilson

The final game of the night sees Snakebite take on the Jammie Dodger and according to the head-to-head the pair have not met in competition before.

Wright with his UK Open title has demonstrated some steady performances winning European titles, as well as appearing in the Premier League finals back in May.

Wright is heavily favoured to win this and is given a 4.5 leg handicap so winning this 10-5 or better, which is 6/5 with Betfair.

Marathonbet has priced up the maximum line at 4.5 and the line at 5/6 and is a bet I am willing to take on and possibly trade in play if Wright fires out the blocks quickly with a maximum.

Recommendations (Lockup Dave’s personal stake plan – £10 a point)
Michael Smith -2.5 legs vs West – 1.72 Boylesports – 2pts
James Wade Over 113.5 checkout – 1.89 Marathonbet – 1pt
Anderson/Kist Under 15.5 legs – 4/5 Sky Bet – 1.5pts
Peter Wright Over 4.5 180s – 5/6 Marathonbet – 1pt

Please bet responsibly

World Matchplay betting special: Will there be a nine-dart finish at the Winter Gardens this year?

Will there be a nine-dart finish at this year’s BetVictor World Matchplay?

2017 nine darter odds
1/1 No
8/11 Yes

2016
8/11 No
1/1 Yes

2015
11/10 No
8/11 Yes

Last year we nailed the bet again, and if you want refreshing on some of the narrative from the 2016 preview:

The question will be: will there be a perfect leg, also known as a nine-dart finish? Sponsors BetVictor has pledged to make a charitable donation to Parkinson’s UK (the official PDC charity of 2016) of £5,000 for every nine-dart finish achieved during the 2016 BetVictor World Matchplay.

There have been six previous nine darters achieved in the World Matchplay, most recently by Phil Taylor in 2014, but notably when two perfect legs were hit in successive days during the 2012 event by Michael van Gerwen and Wes Newton.

Readers of my column will know that we took the no nine-dart finish last year and got 11/10 with the sponsors, who are meaner in offering just 8/11 for another blank this campaign.

Backers will be able to pocket 2/1 on exactly one, but those visioning another 2012 can get 4/1 on two or more perfect legs.

The most recent perfect leg was at the Premier League back in April and in fact in the PDC we have seen just five televised nine-dart finishes since January 2, 2016, when Gary Anderson hit one against Jelle Klaasen in the World Championship.

Adrian Lewis has hit two of the last three perfect legs and with the Matchplay format surely the chances of seeing the feat is enhanced?

Perhaps so and certainly punters might weigh up the potential chances in legs versus the true probability of seeing the perfect leg.

With 569 legs played in the 2016 event we still saw a blank, demonstrating how difficult the task really is, especially with external factors such as heat, atmosphere and momentum.

BetVictor again sponsor the event and punt 8/11 there will be a nine-dart finish through its duration and 100/30 we see two or more. With a 26.43 per cent of seeing two compared to a 57.90 per cent chance of seeing at least one.

Remember a bookmaker prices on the basis of attracting money on both sides of the book and the 8/11 will see action, although those backing no at evens will think about looking away each time an attempt takes place.

We have seen many attempts over the last 18 months, but none at the Matchplay in three years since Taylor hoovered up a finish against Michael Smith.

Will it be third time lucky for us? At evens it is acceptable to us to back. If you are with us, fair enough, but with the sheer task and lack of finishes I’d rather be backing this than an odds on loser!

Looking at the event average, the 108.50 average is high. Considering Lewis did exceed this in a 10-0 whitewash of Andrew Gilding in 2014, MVG’s 110.93 in 2015 and a blank in last year’s event.

I believe the danger is likely to be in the opening round, although as the format extends the lesser chance there is of this happening.

Just a few missed doubles will help this average and reiterate the line in my opinion is set high!

Lockup Dave’s reccomendations
No nine-dart finish – 2.00 BetVictor 2pts
Highest average – Under 108.50 – 45 BetVictor 2pts