Dave South

Lockup Dave’s betting tips for the quarter-finals of the World Grand Prix

We are at the point in the World Grand Prix, where we will discover our semi-final line up for Friday and it could be an absolute cracker.

Tonight’s action will be available to all Sky TV customers on their free sports channel Sky Sports Mix and in addition to this the same channel will screen the final on Saturday also.

Order of play

Robert Thornton vs Daryl Gurney – Players tied on 3-3 (Gurney has won all of the last three inclusive of his last 32 win at the last World Championship)

John Henderson vs Raymond van Barneveld – No previous meetings

Benito van de Pas vs Simon Whitlock – van de Pas leads 3-2 (van de Pas won last three)

Mensur Suljovic vs Peter Wright – Wright leads 6-3

Robert Thornton vs Daryl Gurney

Thornton – 23/10 Boylesports; Gurney – 4/9 Betfair

Despite some jerky darts in his win versus Dave Chisnall, Robert Thornton is capitalising on his free meal ticket in the competition seeing Phil Taylor made way for his inclusion.

Thornton’s game against Chisnall could have gone either way at times. Daryl Gurney played a great spirited game against Joe Cullen in what was a well-paced game which saw Superchin win 3-1 in a deserving battle.

Gurney was superb on his finishing doubles against Cullen ending up with a 75% conversion, which is beyond expectations of any player for this level of accuracy.

Thornton headed a respectable 34.29% on the checkouts and relied on his third dart as his most effective.

The game will be another best of five encounter with the young Irish star odds on to win the game either 3-0 or 3-1. Thornton is evens to win the game by any method and covers a 3-2 loss if this is the bet you are looking for.

There was grave expectations in the Gurney game to see maximums and even discussed this game on my off air darts elite forum chat.

When approached on the subject, we saw just four in the process with the line twice this. Thornton’s game saw the Scot pocket nine, also upsetting many Chisnall 180 backers. With the line set at 8.5 the assumption would be that we need to see more than a straight sets win to consider this and with a fair contribution from both. The pair both play reactively, which is a factor to support the over line on this case.

Thornton can show his disappointment visually when darts go astray and guaranteed the crowd will be PRO Gurney on this game.

John Henderson Vs Raymond van Barneveld

Henderson – 7/2 Sportingbet; Barney – 2/7 Bet365

There is no data to suggest the pair have ever met having both been in the game for several years. Henderson is newer to the PDC code, but has been around for a while and is a credible top 32 player.

Henderson’s fairy tale adventure continues with credibility as expectations of beating van Gerwen in the round took the pressure off him and that was the case for Alan Norris in that he was expected to win the game. The Highlander punished Norris on several occasions

The game between van Barneveld and Beaton was not quite the classic we might have expected as Beaton said himself he had a bad day at the office.

Beaton suffered a host of key misses which handed Barney a 3-0. Barney pre-game was 4/5 to win his quarter, and on the basis of his match odds would have gone in no better than 2/5 to beat Alan Norris had he won his game. Barney is 2/7, so punters could cash in marginally here on a trade-off.

There was little activity on the maximums in the Barney game seeing just the one and the Scotsman is BIG at 21/10 with Coral to hit the most 180s in the game which may appeal to some.

Benito van de Pas vs Simon Whitlock

Whitlock – 19/20 Betfair; van de Pas 23/20 Boylesports

Benito and Simon Whitlock meet in what should be a tightly contested game where van de Pas made light work of Gerwyn Price in his second round disposing of the Welshman 3-0.

Whitlock similarly easily beat North in a one sided encounter, with Richard North putting up some resistance, but was not enough to trouble the Aussie.

Both players had impressive checkout percentages with Benito hitting a 64.29% conversion compared to Simon’s 52.94%. Overall Pas has converted 53.33 with Whitlock’s 48.57%.

Punters will be keen to consider the Aussie to hit the most maximums in the tie, knowing the angle of throw Big Ben often throws. Whitlock has eight compared to van de Pas’ three making this market a potential target.

Over the format of best of will emulate the format in the previous round. Whitlock is 4/7 for most 180s which appeals. The -1.5 Handicap also will raise some eyebrows on the basis van de Pas often switches to 19s and at 10/11 is a fair price.

Mensur Suljovic vs Peter Wright

Wright – 7/12 Marathonbet; Suljovic – 15/8 Betfair

The Austrian made light work of Steve West in their encounter taking a straight sets victory. Suljovic took out some excellent scoring including a 140 finish on double top twice. The look on West’s face said it all when this landed and he new it was not his day, but put up a valiant fight despite the scoreline.

Playing Suljovic is no easy task in respect of playing his pace. Suljovic’s opponent Peter Wright will endure a task of dealing with Mensur Mania and the apparent niggle Wright seem to have against King towards his elbow is nothing serious.

This game could go some distance so Paddy Power are 8/11 for over 15.5 legs which I expect to see at least four sets in the game. This is a fair price on the basis the game will last anywhere between 9-25 legs!

Recommendations

Whitlock -1.5 180 Handicap 10/11Coral and Ladbrokes 1.5 Pts

Over 15.5 legs (Wright/Suljovic) 8/11Paddy Power 1pt

1st leg 180 NO – Whitlock and Barney games – 2.07 Betway 2pt double

Lockup Dave’s betting tips for day four of the World Grand Prix

The quarter-finals will be finalised as the bottom half of the draw takes shape and Peter Wright remains the hot favourite to win the title!

Order of play

Gerwyn Price vs Benito van de Pas (Players tied 3-3)

Mensur Suljovic vs Steve West (Mensur leads 2-1)

Richard North vs Simon Whitlock (Richard leads 2-0)

Peter Wright vs Mervyn King (Peter leads 11-5)

Gerwyn Price vs Benito van de Pas

Two of the younger stars will get a chance to make the quarter final, and with Price having made the UK Open final back in March should have enough to see off Big Ben in this last 16 clash!

Layers edge Price by the narrowest of margins. Coming into the game Price certainly made some impact over the summer reaching a semi final at the World Series event, as well as the World Cup final back in June.

Benito in comparison bar a European Tour semi final last month had experienced flat form having exited early on in events dating back to early May.

The bet I really like here is a little unorthodox but William Hill are offering a special #yourodds bet on NO 180 in the first two legs on the basis that double in on a particular leg in my view does lean more so to the no outcome rather than a regular leg of 501.

On their last game, Benito did not register a maximum until after leg two, and despite Gerwyn hitting one in his opening we did not see another in the set from the Welshman.

At 21/20 this has a fair chance of landing, especially if both players struggle to get going.

Mensur Suljovic vs Steve West

Suljovic survived an early set deficit to overcome Ian White in his opener. Mensur was fairly effective throughout his match and has Steve West, an ideal opponent for his pace in the second round. Steve West was well backed to beat Wade and did not disappoint.

The pair have met only three times, with Suljovic on the slight edge. Odds compilers are giving nothing away with their general 1/3 odds on the Austrian with West out at 14/5 with Bwin.

There is no bet for this game and will enjoy this as this could be closer than the odds suggest!

Richard North vs Simon Whitlock

Richard North is going places in Darts and overcame a patchy Mark Webster in their opener. Whitlock survived match darts against Christian Kist resiliently to take 108 out with double 16.

North comes into this game as the likely underdog at 5/2 with Whitlock a solid 2/5.

The Aussie has the experience on the TV stage, which will give him the edge. In addition, Whitlock’s checkout ability has assisted in his elevation to the top four just a short while ago.

North has enjoyed a sound year including a recent pro-tour final back in August, but expect Whitlock to reign supremacy, without conceding more than one set.

Peter Wright vs Mervyn King

The two good friends square off in what could be an epic game. Both players know each others game inside out, although Wright in the last four years has had the better of King 8-2 on the head to head including winning the last six. Wright is chalked up short at just 2/7 with Bet365 with King at 7/2 with Boylesports.

King made relative work of his game versus Ronny Huybrechts 2-0 with Peter Wright getting through by the skin of his teeth with Bunting missing two match darts on double 16.

Wright should win the maximum count on the night, having pocketed four in his win over Bunting. King took just one, and is not the maximum hitter we have known him to be. At 8/11 with Sunbets is a fairly strong bet to take with Betfred chalking the maximum handicap at -1.5 at just 6/5.

The expectation for Wright to come out on top to make the last eight by many. King has plenty in the tank to bag a set or two. From 2/7 for Wright to win by any method, you can get Wright to win but concede a set or more at 11/10, which is a shade of value on their correct score combined percentage which should be around evens winning 3-1 or 3-2.

Recommendations

NO 180 in legs 1 and 2 (Price/Pas) 21/20 William Hill (#yourodds) 1.5 pts)
Wright/King – Wright to win but both to win a set – 11/10 Betfred 1.5pts
Whitlock -1.5 sets to beat North – 11/10 Unibet and 888sport 2pts
Wright – most 180’s Vs King – 8/11 Sunbets 1pt

Lockup Dave’s betting tips for day three of the World Grand Prix

There was a major upset on night one of the World Grand Prix opening the top half of the draw right up with Michael van Gerwen’s elimination thanks to John Henderson.

The opening round of 16 begins with four matches as the third major of the year unfolds.

Order of play

Dave Chisnall vs Robert Thornton – Chisnall leads 14-10
Daryl Gurney vs Joe Cullen – Cullen leads 5-1
John Henderson vs Alan Norris – Norris leads 4-3
Raymond van Barneveld vs Steve Beaton – van Barneveld leads 9-2

Short price backers will be able to back the four fold of Chisnall/Gurney/Norris and Barney at a shade under 3/1 with Hills.

The underdogs will reap a tasty 88/1 with BetVictor seeing the longshot prices all storm home.

Looking at the line up you cannot be overly confident all four favourites will win, although support the reasoning perhaps over one or two of the above.

With the format best of five, the competitors will have a little more time to settle in.

Chisnall squares off against Thornton, where Chisnall is short at just 4/11 to make the quarter final. Thornton is BIG at 14/5 but to win this must be strong at starting off.

Chisnall is a firm favourite on tops and considered double 18 as his reserve option in polishing off Jelle Klaasen in just eight legs.

Thornton had an edgy but confidence boosting win over Kim Huybrechts and the look on his face when he won could determine how relived he really was.

There were classic Thornton signs during the game which the Thorn will need to shake off quickly.

Chisnall hit six maximums in eight legs against Klaasen and is a solid 4/9 with firms to outhit the Scotsman.

Betfred punt just 8/13 Chisnall wins by two or more maximums, which is too short for us, but the 4/9 is good double material with another maximum bet, which enhances to 8/5 with a 6/4 minimum price acceptable, which you will find at the end of this feature.

Gurney and Cullen is a great pairing, where the Irishman will be heavily cheered by the Irish fans, with Cullen potentially having to be the crowd heel especially on the doubles, which could be Gurney’s 12th man in football terminology.

Gurney is no bigger than 4/7 for a place in the last eight, with the former postman at 13/8 lengthening from his initial 6/4 quoted price.

Cullen endured a very close encounter with fellow in-form Darren Webster, which saw a great three set game where the final two sets went the distance.

In a nutshell, there will be punters looking at a Gurney 3-1 win, which is best 3/1, with a clean sweep chalked at 4/1 with Bwin, representing a 20% chance.

One bet that does appeal is for there to be no maximum in the first leg. For even money on a maximum, I would want Chisnall or MVG to be one of the two men in the game and this percentage is not on par with both players featuring.

They did not achieve this in their opening game, and again with double start there is one fewer opportunity to hit a maximum in any given leg.

The third game has John Henderson facing off versus Alan Norris. Norris probably expected to be facing Mighty Mike in the last 16, but both players will have an opportunity to make some further headway in this competition.

Henderson averaged a mid to high 70 average in his victory and relied on MVG’s double in misses, which went punished.

Norris will be well fancied for this and is a short 4/9 shot to beat the Highlander at 21/10.

Norris did appear to be pretty rusty in his opener, and a repeat performance will see Henderson take advantage of this.

Henderson in any game in 2017 has not hit more than three maximums over any distance. Norris has exceeded this in six games in the same period, but has played a small handful more games than Hendo.

Both did not hit a single maximum in their opener, but Norris once in the groove can reach consistency. My worry with the Highlander is his rocking movement on the throw, which works for him, but does suffer in the maximum scoring department.

I am willing to take on Norris over an extended format to get settled in and beat the Scotsman by one or more maximums. It is 4/5 with Sunbets but doubled up with Chisnall pays 8/5 with Blacktype, with Winner, Sunbets and Marathonbet all offering better than 6/4, the minimum price acceptable for this double.

In the final match we see two veterans face off, where Barney at the time of writing became the second favourite for the competition. Barney plays Beaton, where the pair bar one meeting have not faced off in the best part of five years.

Both players outclassed their opposition to reach this stage and Barney is installed as the 3/10 favourite with Beaton at 5/2.

I had taken the price at 4/5 for the game to see fewer than seven maximums, but has subsequently shortened to 8/11, which is below my minimum price acceptable.

Elsewhere in the match, I considered a high checkout for Barney but is set high at 117 which is 5/6, but wanted nearer even money to take on. I will sit back and watch this to see the best man win!

Recommendations

Most 180 double – Chisnall/Norris – 8/5 Blacktype (6/4+ acceptable at Marathonbet/Winner and Sunbets) 1pt

First leg 180 NO – Cullen/Gurney 8/11 Paddy Power 1.5 pts

World Matchplay betting column, day nine: No 180 in the first leg of the final is my tip for tonight

Phil Taylor heads into tonight’s World Matchplay final seeking a record 16th title with odds compilers laying 1/2 on Taylor and 7/4 against for Peter Wright.

It has been three years since Taylor last won a PDC major title.

Wright averaged around the 94 mark against Daryl Gurney last night with just four 180s in 32 legs and has misfired all week in this region.

On the head to head Wright trails Taylor 20-10 and with a chance to win his second major in a year after pocketing the UK Open in March.

One stat I have derived is that neither player has hit a 180 in the opening leg. Each of the pairs four matches respectively albeit Wrights opener has seen an opening leg maximum which was by James Wilson.

The first leg NO 180 is 1.74 at Marathonbet and 8/11 with Coral and Ladbrokes is certainly worth considering seeing as neither player has achieved one any sooner than the second leg onwards.

Tonight could be Taylor’s dream in respect of winning this for the 16th time, more than in any other arena and is likely the fans will be behind Taylor.

The 180 line in general is set at 17.5 at 5/6 with Hills and Marathonbet and is possibly worth a look although if both perform this line could go close.

Recommendation

First leg 180 NO – 1.74 Marathonbet 1pt (8/11 acceptable with Coral and Ladbrokes)

World Matchplay betting column, day eight: Will Phil Taylor get off to a hot start again tonight?

The World Matchplay arrives at the semi-final stage and I’m happy to announce all Sky TV subscribers can benefit from watching this on Sky Sports Mix on channel 121.

Last night’s bet on match to have most 180s ended in a tie, which meant our bet was deemed void under the Hills rules on betting without the tie price being quoted.

The final four are here but only two of them can proceed to the final on Sunday.

Daryl Gurney vs. Peter Wright – 2/1 – 7/15 (Wright leads 9-3)

Gurney ended a losing streak of seven spanning back to mid-February 2016 by defeating Wright 8-7 two weeks ago at the US Masters in a tight game taking four of the final five legs to beat Snakebite.

Gurney’s form has been so impressive a well known professional gambler contacted me to inform me regarding a Gurney 100/1 price for the World Championship each-way and managed to get an acceptable sum on the outcome.

Gurney is 2/1 against to Wright at 2/5 – 4/9 in places and 7/15 at Marathonbet.

Route to the semi-finals

Gurney:
Last 32 – Benito van de Pas 11-9
Last 16 – Gary Anderson 11-9
Last 8 – Mensur Suljovic 16-13

Summary
Legs played – 59
180s scored – 28
Average 180 per leg – 0.47457 per leg
Highest checkout -146

Wright:
Last 32 – James Wilson 10-8
Last 16 – Cristo Reyes 11-4
Last 8 – Darren Webster 16-12

Summary
Legs played – 61
180s scored – 10
Average 180 per leg – 0.16393 per leg
Highest checkout – 147

Looking at the markets immediately our eyes turn to the 180 markets and no doubt Gurney is the 4/9 FAV here with Wright 100/30 and 10/1 the tie.

Superchin is 1/1 to win the 180 count by three or more which on the basis of this week evens is a fair price.

Alternatively, Gurney is solid at 1/2 to beat Wright with a 5.5 leg handicap and I really like this with Bwin in comparison Bet 365 are 4/11 for the same market.

Wright has been nailing the scoring as we know him but something is not quite right and it something with Wright’s darts.

Gurney on the maximum count is appealing and the highest checkout overall which is 140.50 at 5/6 which is not worth touching.

Phil Taylor vs. Adrian Lewis – 2/5 – 11/5 (Taylor leads 53-17)

The pair are 1-1 in 2017 having traded victories in the Premier League round robin.

Route to the semi-finals

Lewis:
Last 32 – Steve Beaton 10-7
Last 16 – Rob Cross 11-8
Last 8 – Alan Norris 16-13

Summary
Legs played – 65
180s scored – 17
Average 180 per leg – 0.2615 per leg
Highest checkout – 144

Taylor:
Last 32 – Gerwyn Price – 10-5
Last 16 – Raymond van Barneveld 11-3
Last 8 – Michael van Gerwen 16-6

Summary
Legs played – 51
180s scored – 16
Average 180 per leg – 0.3137 per leg
Highest checkout – 151

Taylor is a firm 2/5 to make ‘one more’ final and can do this in style by beating Adrian Lewis.

Taylor has given away a 3.5 leg handicap and the scoreline versus MVG was superb as Taylor blessed the crowd at the end.

It was for me a beautiful moment seeing Taylor show some emotion to the crowd who cheered him throughout and raised goosebumps at the end.

Lewis despite the 180 leg average difference is 5/6 with Paddy Power to win the maximum count and can do with a back and forth motion on the oche.

Lewis has admitted he has been commuting to the venue and was caught in bad traffic for his last game.

William Hill have one bet which appeals is for Taylor to win the opening two legs. If Taylor can emulate what he did over MVG and Barney at 9/4 you feel the crowd are going to be right behind Taylor as motivation and Lewis with his back issue may take time to get motoring.

Recommendations
Gurney -2.5 180s – 1/1 Sky Bet 2pts
Taylor to win opening 2 legs – 9/4 William Hill 1pt

World Matchplay betting column, day seven: Adrian Lewis and Alan Norris to serve up more 180s tonight

We were treated to two thrilling games on Thursday as the first semi-final was settled.

For those that do not know the outcomes, Daryl Gurney edged past Mensur Suljovic 16-13 in a game where Suljovic had the lead during the contest but Superchin had that little bit extra in the tank to seal the final three legs 16-13.

In the other quarter-final, Peter Wright similarly had that bit extra in the tank where his opponent Darren Webster was with Wright throughout the contest losing 16-12 in a very credible effort.

The second lot of quarter-finals takes place tonight which sees Alan ‘Chuck’ Norris battle Adrian ‘Jackpot’ Lewis and Phil Taylor battling what could be his final Matchplay appearance if Michael van Gerwen has anything to do with it!

Alan Norris vs. Adrian Lewis – (Lewis leads 3-0)

Both players have seen off formidable opposition to get to this stage. Norris saw off Kim Huybrechts and Dave Chisnall in quality encounters. Lewis saw off Steve Beaton in an entertaining contest in round one followed by a maximum filled 11-8 win versus rising star Rob Cross.

Odds:
Lewis – 4/9
Norris – 9/4

Although as the event draws to its conclusion the odds compilers sharpen up prices in respect of what has happened making it trickier to exploit any perceived market value.

Both players are capable of packing in the maximums and with Norris stalling out of first gear at times during his game with Huybrechts without a maximum still polished together 15 140s and trousered 14 140s with nine maximums in a fierce battle with Dave Chisnall.

Adrian Lewis although his opener against Steve Beaton clearly suggested some ring rust still managed 17 140s but only the single maximum. Versus Rob Cross, Lewis’s 140s were consistent and polished nine of these attempts into a 180.

In a game that may go some distance both players will be in reactive mode and see this game at 11/10 with the most maximums a fair proposition!

Michael van Gerwen vs. Phil Taylor – (Taylor leads 32-25)

The pair met in the final a year ago where MVG defeated Taylor 18-10 in a classic encounter. In the year that has passed including that final the pair have met seven times with Taylor the victor on four occasions.

It could have been five in Shanghai in a recent World Series event where it looked like Taylor was 6-2 up and MVG stormed back to win 8-7 leaving Taylor fuming from the pictures we saw.

Being in Taylor’s backyard MVG will be looking to make it a second victory in a row on this stage after losing out to Taylor 18-9 in the 2014 final.

Odds
MVG – 2/11
Taylor – 23/5

Event stats

MVG:
Legs played – 28
180s – 11
Highest out – 160

Taylor:
Legs played – 29
180s – 6
Highest out – 151

The indications on the 180 count would suggest it would be based around the 16 mark and the line has been set at 16.5 at evens over and 5/6 for fewer.

There are two ways of looking at this:

1: We take on board the comments MVG has said this week and expect him to cause some demolition on Taylor.

2: We take on board recent results between the pair and result that Taylor ups the ante and the game is closer than the compilers suggest.

The handicap gives Taylor between a 5-6 leg and ranges from 10/11 for a 5.5 leg head start to 4/6 for a 6.5 leg head start.

MVG is 2/7 to win the maximum count with the handicap set at 3.5 at 11/10 with Paddy Power.

Although the most likely winner is MVG it cannot be discounted in Phil’s game when they particularly play but will expect MVG to have learnt from the last couple of games that once he is in front he commands the next move.

I looked at leader after four and six legs and offers 21/20 MVG leads 3-1 after four to 5/6 to lead after six holds some weight to the argument.

Despite all markets being examined our suggestion goes on the match most 180s and oppose this game as MVG can switch on the maximums although is so fluent he does venture to the cover shots more often than not and think the 4/6 on this game is carrying too much on the shoulders of MVG versus a pair of natural hitters as we have known for years Taylor has a line on the bed he likes to follow for a maximum and will more often or not switch.

Recommendation

Match with most 180s – Lewis/Norris 11/10 William Hill 1pt

World Matchplay betting column, day six: Peter Wright to be light on the maximum count again tonight

The first set of quarter-finals take place tonight as two lucky winners will go on to compete in the semi-Ffinals of the World Matchplay on Saturday night.

Tonight’s order of play:

Daryl Gurney vs. Mensur Suljovic – Gurney leads 5-4 (players tied 2-2 in 2017)
Peter Wright vs. Darren Webster – Wright leads 9-2 (Wright has won last five spanning back to May 2014)

Daryl Gurney vs. Mensur Suljovic

Daryl Gurney defeated Gary Anderson twice in 10 days after the double world champion was given a great game by the Northern Irish chucker!

Gurney really stepped up to the echelons of Anderson who with a 105.17 average was not enough in a credible 11-9 defeat to Gurney.

Heading back to 2012 this event was the kickstart of the pathway that led MVG to greatness and near invincibility. Could this be the continuation of something good for Superchin who is the 4/6 favourite for the tie with Suljovic marginal underdog around 5/4.

Taking on the basis that Gurney is more of the paced player versus the more deliberate style of Suljovic the 180 market is the starting point. Gurney is 1/8 to win the 180 count.

Superchin has netted 15 in his two games, which were both paced games compared to Mensur’s six. From the 1/8 to win by one or more layers take the opinion Daryl should win by a margin of five.

Gurney’s leg maximum average is 0.375 180s per leg (40 played). Suljovic’s average is 0.1935 per leg over 31 legs.

Over the favoured total legs of 27.5, rounded up to 28 based on performance counts each player should get

DG – 10.50
MS – 5.42

The bookie line at -4.5 there is no value at 5/6 for Gurney as it’s a tall line to cover.

I am finding this game difficult to call unless a custom bet on Sky Bet, Hills or BetVictor appears check my blog. But on balance I wish both players the very best of luck.

Peter Wright vs. Darren Webster

Darren Webster has been one of the stars of the event and has a chance to make the Matchplay semi-finals against the winner of the other game on Saturday.

Wright would have been smiling to have seen Gurney edge out Anderson on Tuesday but in his own mind will see any next opponent as a threat and this starts with Webster.

Webster is an underdog around the 5/1 mark with Wright red hot around 1/7. Based on this price Wright has been awarded a 5.5 leg handicap to overcome so must win 16-10 or better to win this is 11/10 with the sponsors.

The market that has shone the radar is the maximum markets. Wright has uncharacteristically netted just five maximums in 33 legs of darts. His opponent Darren Webster has bagged eight in 42 legs.

Fewer than 14 maximums is possible with Paddy Power at 5/6. Wright individually is no higher than 4/5 with Ladbrokes to hit fewer than eight in the game and 11/10 for eight or more.

Collectively Wright has not got his set up right but will he in time for the game? 4/5 Ladbrokes says he falls short on the maximums.

Recommendations

Under 7.5 180s (Wright) – 4/5 Ladbrokes 1pt

World Matchplay betting column, day five: Dave Chisnall and Michael van Gerwen to lead the 180 count tonight

The second half of the last 16 culminates tonight where we will discover the quarter-final line up of play on Friday.

Tonight’s order of play:

Alan Norris vs. Dave Chisnall – Chisnall leads 2-0
Phil Taylor vs. Raymond van Barneveld – Taylor leads 58-17
Adrian Lewis vs. Rob Cross – no previous meetings
Simon Whitlock vs. Michael van Gerwen – van Gerwen leads 24-5

Alan Norris vs. Dave Chisnall

The ever-improving Norris proved it once again with his victory over Kim Huybrechts in Sunday’s opening round.

Dave Chisnall has had a couple of defeats in recent times, but only against the very best in the world. Chisnall otherwise is capable on his day of seeing off his opponents courtesy of his 180 hitting ability.

Chisnall with the stage game especially in recent times is able to pull a couple of quick legs together and is never a person to be left on a three-dart combination.

Although Norris did not register on the maximum count in round one he is very much a reactive player rather than a proactive player so the 180 count may again stack up with rhythm.

With the match prices seeing Chisnall red hot on 1/3 versus Norris at 11/4 it sees the jet setting World Series player with an implied 75% chance of winning compared to Norris’s 26.67% chance.

Having played each other once on tour this year in a Pro Tour event there is only individual gameplay to really go with.

Chisnall has got used to becoming a part of the Premier League and World Series fold of players and is covering more air miles than I will in my lifetime this year alone!

Chisnall at 8/15 for most 180s will be popular as well as over 6.5 maximums at 5/6 with Bet365 may see interest from backers.

Adrian Lewis vs. Rob Cross

Rob Cross played a very steady game taking out Ian White with a respectable 95.72 average and three maximums in the process reigning victorious 10-7 and he plays Adrian Lewis, who saw off Steve Beaton by the same scoreline with a 95.07 average netting just the one maximum.

With no previous meetings going with form you could sum up that Lewis at 4/6 and Cross at 11/8 has seen some manual intervention by the odds compilers.

Both struggled to bed the maximums despite 17 140s from Lewis and 13 from Cross the third dart conversion rate especially from Lewis showed he was a little rusty since the recent operation.

Compilers have priced up evens on both under and over 10.5 maximums with <11 a real possible play in this game.

Lewis and Cross would have benefited from a day of rest on Tuesday. Lewis did look vulnerable at times and Cross’s action was smooth which resulted in his number of 140s.

Phil Taylor vs. Raymond van Barneveld

In what could be the last El Clasico of darts meeting in history before Taylor call it a day at the end of 2017 on tour it could provide an emotional affair.

My personal view with Taylor is if he was to bow out at this stage losing to Barney it would not be such a major issue for the Power seeing as he owned Barney over countless games on their head to head.

Speaking of the head to head, Taylor’s 58-17 with four draws is not such a bad record at all. In fact Taylor’s career on recorded wins sees he has never lost to any player more than wins over.

Taylor lost out to Barney in the quarter-finals of the World Championships in a sterling eight-setter and returned to the Premier League earlier this year to win both ties under a shorter format.

Taylor is top price 8/11 versus Barney at 5/4 and we noticed Taylor was a bag of nerves at times versus Price and put this down to the emotion getting to him.

Taylor took a long time to get the treble 20 filled up and with a lot of loose darts. Barneveld at 5/6 with Bet365 surely cannot be discounted from the game.

Taylor showed with his checkouts how class prevails and considering a joint effort of over 130.50 will be considered at the business end of this preview.

Heading back to the maximums and seeing Taylor at 5/6 for under 4.5 may see punters flying in based on the last performance but do not let this distort your view. Although the legs of this game could be closer is not worth holding out?

I do think we will see a better performance than the 94.04 average from Taylor and am sure that Barney would have benefited from Monday off from his own 92.42 average.

If Taylor is going out here make sure he is dawned with the respect of a standing ovation like the crowd will surely have in reserve for the Power chanting “Thank you Phil” or something as respectful.

Michael van Gerwen vs. Simon Whitlock

Mighty Mike was a little blunt after his 10-4 win over Stephen Bunting about his performance and more so speaking about whether or not his next opponent Simon Whitlock will be a threat to him, van Gerwen responded by saying: “No. I don’t like anyone being a threat to me. Simon is a good player, he’s playing well, but he has an injury to his elbow so it might be a disadvantage to him.”

MVG is just 1/16 to see off Aussie Whitlock out at 10/1 for the big upset. The world number one is 8/11 to win -5.5 legs so 11-5 or better and 8/7 with Marathonbet to win not less than 11-4.

Now if MVG were to have a few slack legs there is not too much room for error if taking the -5.5 bet only at 8/11 so bookies are covering this where possible.

Comparing the handicap to total legs Sky Bet are 5/6 for under 16.5 legs so a slight enhancement on MVG if you are in the opinion Whitlock could win this both bets could be potentially spoilt unless Whitlock won it 11-5 or better if you can vision this.

One bet we do like is MVG to win the 180 count by two or more and Sky Bet offer evens on this. Whitlock has been known as a bigger hitter but will his elbow be causing him too many problems?

MVG demonstrated he can switch his game on similarly to a light switch and even if Whitlock puts forward a formidable attack MVG has demonstrated his motivation time and time again to win!

Recommendations

Taylor Under 4.5 180s – 1/1 Bet365/William Hill 1pt

A bounce out in the game – Taylor/Barney – 13/8 Sky Bet 0.5 pts (request a bet)

Lewis/Cross – Under 10.5 180s – 1/1 general – 1pt

MVG -1.5 180s Vs Whitlock – 1/1 Sky Bet – 1.5 pts

Chisnall and MVG – Most 180 double – 7/5 Betway 1pt

World Matchplay betting column, day four: Steve West can best Darren Webster in some markets

The first round saw some cracking games and particularly some underdog victories.

The opening two games on Saturday saw Steve West and Darren Webster ruin plenty of fav’s accumulators on the night by ploughing home at a combined 14/1 double if anyone was on this.

Gary Anderson and Peter Wright obliged but if backers had taken on the positive handicaps on the underdogs they would have cleaned up.

We said this to Justin Pipe himself last week and it stated we would love to see Pipe and Suljovic battle at the last 16 phase and we have been granted this.

The order of play for Tuesday:

Mensur Suljovic vs. Justin Pipe (Pipe leads 9-2)

Darren Webster vs. Steve West – no previous meetings

Gary Anderson vs. Darryl Gurney – (Anderson leads 6-4)

Peter Wright vs. Cristo Reyes – (Wright leads 7-1)

Mensur Suljovic vs. Justin Pipe (1/3 -3/1)

The pair have met 11 times with Pipe prevailing on nine occasions. Blewboy won the last encounter at a Pro Tour event in April 6-2 with Mensur over the last year or so as the in-form player, who has recently dipped sideways in form especially on the floor events.

On stage however since the World Cup of Darts in June he has made a semi final and final in three events so his stage work is still mighty great.

Pipe managed to see off out of touch Jelle Klaasen in the opener on Sunday with it looking visual that the Dutch maestro’s wrist injury was not completely match fit. Pipe won the game with a tad under 91 average hitting six maximums in the process.

Mensur saw off John Henderson with some ease with a 10-4 victory with a mid 94 average and three maximums.

The betting price firmly sits with the Austrian and why shouldn’t it? With Mensur’s stage work and epic resilience playing a Pipe (3/1) who seemed to not be at his best saw some good darts and some off par shots also.

In a best of 21 clash Pipe is given a +3.5 leg headstart at 10/11 and I see the format suiting both players with a deliberate slow pace. This game should be a cracker now Pipe will be more confident after a win on stage. With the slower pace of the game if this game goes some distance will surely over run the estimated game length.

We contacted William Hill for a match bet and they offered us our fair scenario which was both players to hit 4+ maximums and the match checkout over 110.50 at 100/30 and I cannot deny there isn’t a fair chance of landing especially offering us a bet with an implied percentage of 23.09%.

Darren Webster vs. Steve West – no previous meetings

The pair have not met before according to my sources and both caused early upsets from short priced backers on Saturday.

Both Webster and West collectively would have returned just over 14/1 and between 5/2-3/1 on the positive handicaps had this been backed.

Both players performed brilliantly throughout with Webster needing a mention for his sheer bottle of not succumbing to the big stage and seeing it through against James Wade who was reportedly not well but is not excusing that for defeat.

Steve West and Michael Smith accelerated into the first mini session with a 108 average to a credible 99.94 10-5 victory.

Surprisingly bookies have favoured Webster at 58% to West’s 42% which could be on the basis of form in respect West was a longer price against Smith that Webster was versus Wade.

Bet365 goes 11/8 the pair are 2-2 after four legs and 15/8 it is still tied after six. Looking at the high checkout since the World Championship on stage Webster’s best checkout was a 112 at a European Tour event and hit a 102 in his opener.

West’s best in this period was a 130 at a European Tour event as well as a 121 vs Smith on Saturday. Layers have Webster at short at 8/11 but 5/6 in places for the highest checkout on the night with West at Evens.

Our reasoning for the pricing is purely the match pricing in respect Webster’s price indicates he will win at least two more legs than West. I still fancy the even money price though as I think Webster is a shade shorter than I would have stated.

My target bet here although will be Sky Bet is for West -1.5 maximums vs Webster. The outright most 180’s is 1/2 so the target price minimum for this is even money (1/1)

Gary Anderson vs. Daryl Gurney – (Anderson leads 6-4)

In what may be billed as a rematch just over a week ago when Gurney bested Anderson 8-4 at the US Masters he will look to make it a double sweep as the pair meet again.

Anderson pocketed 10 maximums in his win over Christian Kist which saw the Scotsman bring some of Kist’s better performances out from him.

With both players in fine form, this should be a cracker. Gurney averaged 97 in his first round victory and looked full of confidence. The treble 20 will take a pounding in this game.

Checking certain markets we love Marathonbet offering 89/100 on Anderson to net over a 112.50 checkout. We hope this is not an error but is the bet we take here!

Peter Wright vs. Cristo Reyes – (Wright leads 7-1)

An interesting statistic that all of their eight meetings would have seen over’s on the total leg line (over 9.5 for best of 11) and (over 16.5 on a best of 19).

Wright managed to get over the line against Wilson in the opener despite some below par darts seeing Wright struggle to get out of second gear for some of the contest managing an 89.26 average despite some brilliance from a 147 checkout.

His opponent Reyes pocketed a cool 101 average in a good display against ailing Robert Thornton.

Wright priced on reputation here is around 3/10 with the Spaniard at 4/1 in places. Had the pricing been based on the last performance alone you would be queuing up for the 4/1 wouldn’t you? Of course I’d be in that queue also.

There will be a no bet in this game as nothing takes much fancy.

Recommendations

Suljovic/Pipe both to land at least 4 maximums each and match checkout over 110.50 – 100/30 William Hill #yourodds – 0.5 pts

Steve West -1.5 180s vs. Webster – (Target price 1/1 Sky Bet) – 2pts

Steve West – Highest Checkout – 1/1 general – 1pt

Gary Anderson – over 112.50 checkout – 1.89 Marathonbet 1pt

World Matchplay betting column, day three: Michael van Gerwen to be ‘King of the Oche’ in first outing tonight

The business end of the first round sees the last eight players fight for the remaining places in the last 16 tonight.

Tonight’s order of play:

Simon Whitlock vs. Kyle Anderson – players tied 2-2
Adrian Lewis vs. Steve Beaton – players tied 6-6
Michael van Gerwen vs. Stephen Bunting – MVG leads 10-3
Ian White vs. Rob Cross – White leads 3-1

Simon Whitlock vs. Kyle Anderson

The battle of the Australians entertains the opener at the Winter Gardens with Simon Whitlock pitted against his World Cup partner Kyle Anderson, in which is one of my personal delights of the first round.

Whitlock begun 2017 in high spirits having won two UK Open Qualifiers in February and followed that up with a great run at the UK Open, getting to the quarter-finals in March.

A semi-final in a European Tour event around Easter saw consistency prevail until a dip in form from May onwards saw Whitlock bow out at the early stages of events.

Kyle Anderson’s temporary absence at the back end of 2016 has not done him many favours either nicely rising up the rankings at the time to be forced missing out on three big events including the World Championships.

A European Tour quarter-final and a Pro Tour semi-final more recently have been the main highlights with Anderson the 11/8 shot versus Whitlock at 4/6.

I find this game difficult to call in respect that either player is not going to let the other get too far ahead during the game. I really think if there was one game to nominate going to a tie-breaker this would be on the draft list.

On the betting market front I considered plenty, including the Whitlock three-dart average which was chalked at 11/13 for over 95.50, but the checkout line we wanted was 115.50, but the layers have priced up at 116.50, which was disappointing. Whitlock is capable of the higher average although at 8/11 is not ideal.

Adrian Lewis vs. Steve Beaton

Adrian Lewis will be making his first appearance on stage since being absent on medical grounds recently. We hope Adie is back to full health and will cheer you on as we always do.

His opponent Steve Beaton will no doubt be as consummate as ever, hoping to be able to recreate his magic from 12 months prior getting to the quarter-final and losing out narrowly to Gary Anderson 16-13 in the process in one of the memorable games from last year’s event.

Lewis is 4/9 with the Bronzed Adonis out at 5/2. With Lewis being off the stage for a little while he may produce some “ring-rust” as it might be described and playing Beaton over a dozen times previously knows Steve will just play his game.

The pair have not met on stage approaching three years now. No disrespect to Lewis, but going in blindly on how he may perform with his temporary absence and using reputation alone is not strong enough in my book.

I will be interested on a small interest bet on Beaton over 105.50 checkout at 11/13 with Bwin and I also liked 6/5 on Beaton to hit four or more maximums. With his smooth throw when he is in the zone the maximums do go in but often he can lose some rhythm on the third dart to deny a maximum.

Michael van Gerwen vs. Stephen Bunting

Michael van Gerwen faces off against Stephen Bunting in the penultimate game where MVG is a very heavy favourite to see off the Bullet. Bunting had recently spoken on the Weekly Dartscast and it is well worth a listen.

MVG is heading off as the 4/5 favourite for the title and goes off at 1/16 to win the game with Bunting out at 12/1 to cause a massive upset. There is no value in MVG on the match price and even considering the handicaps you are relying on MVG to win 10-3 or better.

Versus the correct scores of 10-0; 10-1; 10-2 or 10-3 the correct score price implies around a 60 per cent price versus the -6.5 price at 5/4 representing a 44.44 per cent chance.

Looking at the markets the only market that may seem any interest is an even money shot on MVG to win, score the most 180s and the highest checkout makes most sense to me as the game implies Bunting will not get many chances to win legs in the game and even if MVG is off the boil last time we saw Bunting he had real double trouble and I am not sure how his confidence really is going into this game.

Ian White vs. Rob Cross

The final game sees White and Cross with the Diamond with the 3-1 advantage on the head to head all played in 2017.

Cross has been one of the surprise consistent players of 2017 making the most of his tour card rising up the rankings fast. Cross plays veteran White who has been on the circuit for a long time and is no pushover.

Getting to the point here – both are strong on throw and taking this on board I was thinking the total leg price to be around 4/5 but is priced at 19/20 with betstars which is a pleasant surprise. I’d take this rather than the 8/11 on Cross or 13/10 on White.

Recommendations

Beaton – over 105.50 checkout – 11/13 Bwin 0.5 pts

MVG King of the Oche – Win game/most 180 and highest checkout – 1/1 Sky Bet – 1.5 pts

Cross/White – over 16.5 legs – 19/20 betstars 1pt