World Matchplay betting special: Will there be a nine-dart finish at the Winter Gardens this year?

Will there be a nine-dart finish at this year’s BetVictor World Matchplay?

2017 nine darter odds
1/1 No
8/11 Yes

2016
8/11 No
1/1 Yes

2015
11/10 No
8/11 Yes

Last year we nailed the bet again, and if you want refreshing on some of the narrative from the 2016 preview:

The question will be: will there be a perfect leg, also known as a nine-dart finish? Sponsors BetVictor has pledged to make a charitable donation to Parkinson’s UK (the official PDC charity of 2016) of £5,000 for every nine-dart finish achieved during the 2016 BetVictor World Matchplay.

There have been six previous nine darters achieved in the World Matchplay, most recently by Phil Taylor in 2014, but notably when two perfect legs were hit in successive days during the 2012 event by Michael van Gerwen and Wes Newton.

Readers of my column will know that we took the no nine-dart finish last year and got 11/10 with the sponsors, who are meaner in offering just 8/11 for another blank this campaign.

Backers will be able to pocket 2/1 on exactly one, but those visioning another 2012 can get 4/1 on two or more perfect legs.

The most recent perfect leg was at the Premier League back in April and in fact in the PDC we have seen just five televised nine-dart finishes since January 2, 2016, when Gary Anderson hit one against Jelle Klaasen in the World Championship.

Adrian Lewis has hit two of the last three perfect legs and with the Matchplay format surely the chances of seeing the feat is enhanced?

Perhaps so and certainly punters might weigh up the potential chances in legs versus the true probability of seeing the perfect leg.

With 569 legs played in the 2016 event we still saw a blank, demonstrating how difficult the task really is, especially with external factors such as heat, atmosphere and momentum.

BetVictor again sponsor the event and punt 8/11 there will be a nine-dart finish through its duration and 100/30 we see two or more. With a 26.43 per cent of seeing two compared to a 57.90 per cent chance of seeing at least one.

Remember a bookmaker prices on the basis of attracting money on both sides of the book and the 8/11 will see action, although those backing no at evens will think about looking away each time an attempt takes place.

We have seen many attempts over the last 18 months, but none at the Matchplay in three years since Taylor hoovered up a finish against Michael Smith.

Will it be third time lucky for us? At evens it is acceptable to us to back. If you are with us, fair enough, but with the sheer task and lack of finishes I’d rather be backing this than an odds on loser!

Looking at the event average, the 108.50 average is high. Considering Lewis did exceed this in a 10-0 whitewash of Andrew Gilding in 2014, MVG’s 110.93 in 2015 and a blank in last year’s event.

I believe the danger is likely to be in the opening round, although as the format extends the lesser chance there is of this happening.

Just a few missed doubles will help this average and reiterate the line in my opinion is set high!

Lockup Dave’s reccomendations
No nine-dart finish – 2.00 BetVictor 2pts
Highest average – Under 108.50 – 45 BetVictor 2pts

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s