Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: I’m tipping over 10 sets, 25 180s and a big checkout in the final tonight

By Dave South
2 JANUARY 2017 • 2:00PM

We started with 72 players and are down to just two as the final of the William Hill World Darts Championship will be decided at Alexandra Palace this evening.

Will it be Michael van Gerwen or two-time defending world champion Gary Anderson who will lift the Sid Waddell Trophy?

Odds compilers have van Gerwen at 1/3, with Anderson at 11/4. In handicap terms this implies Gerwen should win this by 7-4 or better, with Marathonbet at 16/19, so bookies covering this market.

Overnight I did tip out privately (you know who you are) with van Gerwen’s average at over 103.50 with Paddy Power and has since been adjusted to 105.50.

The value was in the disparity in prices between the highest average price, which varies between 1.33 and 1.64 and the average line, but now this has been adjusted that value is now gone.

For the fact of the final being up to 13 sets does give opportunities to explore the total lines. We have the total legs line at 44.5, but with the expectation of around ten or eleven sets will require a few sets to go the distance and as we know there will be at least one or two sets that are won to nil making the task for difficult.

Breaking this down further, without tie breaks the minimum legs that could be played is 21, with the maximum 64 before triggering the tie break thus 71.

Elsewhere, all compilers take the view on the 180s being in excess of 30 with the line set at 32.5.

Bet365 are taking a chance on first set 180s with the line set at 3.5, 11/8 for four or more and 8/15 for fewer than four? The same firm bet on a first leg maximum and go just 8/11 on an opening leg 180, with 11/10 for no maximum.

There was no maximum in the MVG semi final, but there was in the Anderson semi final, but was scored by Peter Wright!

William Hill bet 7/4 on a 160 or better checkout on the night with Skybet’s request a bet, that punt 8/11 that there are at least 10 sets, 25 maximums and a 130 finish in the match. The same firm bet 4/5 on 10 sets, 21 maximums but a 140 or better finish.

A more longshot 55/1 bet with Skybet is for both to hit a 170 finish, and both to net 10 or more maximums in the match.

However the outcome, I do expect the game to be a spectacle and will head with the 8/11 with Skybet on 10 sets or more, 25 or more 180s and a 130 or better finish!

Tonight’s recommendation

10+ sets, 25 180s or more & 130+ checkout – 8/11 Skybet

Prices correct at time of publication


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