Lockup Dave’s Betting Column: Anderson to finish with the highest average in semi-final against Wright

By Dave South
1 JANUARY 2017 • 3:24PM

An all Scottish affair will determine one of the finalists for the 2017 William Hill World Darts Championship, but will it be defending two time champion Gary Anderson, or Peter Wright?

One stat you may not read anywhere, is that both players have featured in the last three finals, with Gary lifting the title in the last two, and Wright a beaten finalist in 2014.

Bookmakers have priced as I priced, with Anderson around the 1/2 mark and Wright at 2/1. The head to head shows Anderson leads 17-11 with Wright winning just one of the last eight spanning back to mid April 2014.

The pair met in the 2015 World Championship, where the Flying Scotsman sunk Wright 5-1 in quite the one sided game.

Is Anderson a good tip at 1/2? The head to head would suggest so on the basis that Anderson is undefeated since April 3, 2015 nine meetings ago, with a draw the closest result for Snakebite since.

Anderson certainly charged to his semi final with a 105.9 average versus a very willing Dave Chisnall, who fired in 21 maximums in the process.

Wright pulled together a credible 104.79 performance in beating James Wade, where it took until the fifth set for Snakebite to take the lead off the Machine.

We saw 22 maximums in the game with Wright, and one thing that has been noticed with Wright is his sheer scoring power especially at the right times.

The line for the semi final is exceptionally high at 144.50 with last years final only a couple points higher. It is difficult to argue with the bookmaker pricing of 8/11 for Anderson to get the opening maximum, like he has in the last two matches!

I do like the Wright handicap of 4/6 with a 2.5 set headstart with BetVictor but with many bookmakers above evens, will you take the chance that there will be at least 10 sets with Coral’s 6/5 pricing?

Wright to maintain a 3 dart average of 101.50 will be a challenge indeed, and is a worthy bet in the tendancies of the quarter final performances I have seen and standards displayed!

The bet for us that has a sporting chance must be Wright under 11.5 maximums at evens with Coral and also Anderson to net the highest average, which is 3/5 with Bwin.

Michael van Gerwen will be looking to make it third time lucky since his last title and will want to avert his last World Championship meeting when Barney took out MVG in the third round in last year’s competition.

The head to head have MVG leading 26-16 with MVG remaining unbeaten in the four occasions they have met since the loss.

The last meeting was at the Players Championship Finals in the end of November with Mighty Mike at 1/6 with Barney at 9/2.

This is such a match I want to enjoy without taking a bet on, although the 22.5 180 line is high this could be the only element of value in the game, but with motion in the game, that line could soon shrink with an exchange of maximums.

Tonight’s recommendations

Wright under 11.5 180s – 1/1 Coral

Anderson – highest average vs Wright – 3/5 Bwin

Prices correct at time of publication


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